• Bitcoin long-term holders reduced balances by 9.8 percent, less severe than previous cycles.  
• Short-term holders spike during price peaks while long-term holders show consistent resilience.  
• Exchange outflows increase during rallies and inflows rise during bearish market corrections.

Bitcoin’s long-term holders are slowly selling some of their Bitcoin. Data from IntoTheBlock shows that long-term holders now have 12.45 million BTC, the lowest level since July 2022.

But this drop is less than in previous cycles. In this cycle, long-term holder balances are down 9.8%, compared to the 15% reduction in 2021 and the 26% dip in 2017.

Long-Term Holder Balances and Bitcoin Price

Historically, when long-term holder balances go down, Bitcoin prices are high. In the 2018 market cycle, the balances of long-term holders fell from 9 million BTC to under 8 million BTC as Bitcoin’s price fell from a peak of nearly $20,000. Also, these balances fell in the 2021 bull market as Bitcoin reached record highs of $60,000 to $65,000.

But these declines do not usually last long. Long-term holder balances go back up when the market is bearish. As Bitcoin’s price went past $80,000 in 2024, long-term holders started buying again, which brought balances up to close to 15 million BTC.

Read also: BTC Near $100K: Institutions Buy In, Yet Long-Term Holders Cash Out

Holder Behavior

In bull markets, short-term holders (under 1 month) and medium-term holders (1–12 months) are very active because they want to take profits or make risk-seeking trades. This happened in 2018, 2021, and the current 2024 surge. In contrast, long-term investors (holding for over a year) stay stable, which shows strength during price fluctuations.

After price corrections, such as those in late 2018 and mid-2022, activity among short- and medium-term holders goes down. Long-term holders start accumulating again.

Exchange Flows Highlight Market Sentiment  

Net flows on Bitcoin spot exchanges also show market dynamics. Outflows (Bitcoin withdrawn from exchanges) were high throughout the period, which is related to price increases, particularly during the rally toward $100,000 in November.

But inflows went up a lot during price corrections, such as in late November when Bitcoin went back down to $60,000. This shows increased selling pressure or profit-taking during bearish phases.